In Reversal, City’s White Population Fell Faster Than Black
In a reversal of a major population trend in St. Louis, 2024 saw the city’s white population decline at a faster rate than the Black population. In recent years, the city has transitioned from a city with a Black plurality to one with a white plurality. The change was driven by an accelerating loss of Black residents, while the white population has trended lower at a slower rate. The latest census data shows that this is no longer the case. This is one of many takeaways from the most recent analysis by Saint Louis University (SLU)’s Dr. Ness Sandoval.
After years of routinely losing more than 5000 Black residents per year, recent census data shows that the city lost fewer than 1000 Black residents for the first time in many years. White population loss has also slowed, but far less dramatically. The city’s white population decreased by roughly 1300 residents, compared to a Black population loss of closer to 700. Asked about why the Black population loss showed such a dramatic slowdown, Dr. Sandoval said, “It seems like we’ve reached a point where most of the people inclined to leave have already done so. The Black adult population is already under 100K. (86,650 is the 2024 number).” When further asked if he thought the recent tornado damage would potentially cause a rebound in Black population loss, Dr. Sandoval’s response focused less on the historic event and more on the aftermath. I’m not sure I’d say the city will regain momentum, but there was definitely displacement. Some residents left the city entirely, while others relocated to different neighborhoods. Given the challenges in the city’s response, it’s possible that the aftershocks from that response may ultimately cause more lasting demographic loss than the initial demographic shock of the tornado itself,” said Dr. Sandoval.
Chart provided by Dr. Sandoval
Not all demographic groups saw population declines. The city’s Asian population rebounded, more than making up for the previous year’s decline of a little over 600, while a clear bright spot in the census data is the continued growth of the city’s Latino population. This year’s data shows the city’s Latino population has broken the 15,000 mark and climbed closer to 16,000. This compares to roughly 12,000 Latino residents in 2014. The city’s Latino population stayed between 12,000-13,000 for many years, with the growth trend really taking hold in the last few years. ”I think the Office of New Americans has played a role in supporting population stability. When the region experiences growth, especially in immigrant and minority communities, the city tends to benefit as well. The increase in the Latino population reflects a broader regional trend and contributes to the city’s demographic resilience for Latinos,” said Dr. Sandoval.
Another data point of note is the declining number of city residents who identify as multiracial. In recent years, this number has rapidly increased. This is somewhat a byproduct of how the census collects racial data. “Yes, the Census has struggled with accurately capturing mixed-race individuals and those who identify with the ‘Other’ category. This is one reason why many demographers are cautious about relying on population estimates by race and ethnicity — the ‘Other’ category is often underrepresented or inconsistently reflected in administrative data. In contrast, the American Community Survey (ACS) allows individuals to self-identify as ‘Other,’ providing a more nuanced view, though it still has its own limitations,” said Dr. Sandoval.
Many of the region’s counties have seen a decline in the number of households with children. Among the area counties included in Dr. Sandoval’s analysis, only Missouri’s Jefferson and St. Charles counties have seen an increase in the number of households with children since 2010. Even these increases are modest, with both counties showing gains of fewer than 600 households with children. In contrast, St. Louis City has seen a decline of over 6,000 households with children, while St. Louis County’s posted a decline of more than 8,000. On the Illinois side of the metropolitan area, St. Clair County’s decline of more than 7,500 households shows that the trend isn’t isolated to Missouri.
Correction: This story initially said Dr. Sandoval works for University of Missouri – St. Louis. It was corrected to say that he works for SLU.
Update: One of Dr. Sandoval’s quotes was clarified with an exact number.
