Missouri GOP’s Overreach Aided By Democrats’ Irrelevance
Whether it is the state retaking control of the city’s police department, proposed rollbacks to the recently passed changes to the state’s minimum wage and paid sick leave policy, or other pushback from Jefferson City, it appears that the state’s GOP supermajority has grown tired of voters’ preferences. For a region that has tried to cast itself as forward-looking and progressive, this change marks the beginning of a significant shift that could impact the region’s ability to keep and attract both businesses and a skilled workforce.
Already, quite a few Missourians have made the decision to move to Illinois. Despite downstate Illinois’s relative conservatism, compared to St. Louis and many inner-ring suburbs, I know numerous families that have made the move to Illinois, citing the liberal state government. These families have made their decisions for various reasons. In some cases, a member is trans and is escaping Missouri’s war on gender-affirming care. Others have moved to a state that they see as less likely to cut benefits to lower-income residents. While some of these Missouri expats still work on the western side of the river, Missouri and local municipalities are still losing out on the tax revenue that these households generate. This is especially scary for St. Louis city, which has used a development strategy targeted at courting higher-income, socially liberal households.
For businesses in the area, the region’s forced move to the right will make it harder to recruit and retain talent. The region has spent many years working to build a brand that casts St. Louis as forward-thinking. This has included major investments in supporting agricultural science, geospatial, “fintech”, and other fields. In an attempt to shrug off the region’s rust belt persona, the city and state have provided significant incentives to these innovative and growing industries. The workers in these industries often have an advanced education and are culturally left-of-center. In recent years, our “island of blue in a sea of red” has been somewhat successful in building a brand distinct from the state’s overall reputation as being largely white and conservative. This was good for both Missouri and St. Louis. The more cosmopolitan city and inner suburbs brought residents and workers to the region who might have otherwise been put off by Missouri’s generally conservative political environment. If these potential workers no longer view urban areas as providing a respite from the state’s politics, it could become more difficult for companies to attract these workers.
What we are now seeing is the culmination of years of political developments. A sober analysis of the state’s political landscape will make it clear that Democrats have been relegated to a mostly impotent minority in the legislature. They also don’t hold a single statewide office. The result is that the legislature is no longer scared of political fallout from making decisions that could be unpopular with swing voters. Whatever electoral fear that might have kept the GOP from meddling in more of the city and inner suburbs’ business has faded away. At the same time, the Missouri Democratic Party doesn’t seem to be capable of fighting back. The party is essentially leaderless. While most of my neighbors could name their Democratic state representative, getting them to name a statewide leader of the state’s Democratic Party is difficult at best. Only the most plugged-in residents know who is supposed to be leading the opposition to the state GOP’s agenda. That’s a big problem. This has created a situation where Republicans rightly feel as though they won’t be held accountable for making unpopular decisions.
As the mayoral election is mercifully nearing its end, we can hope that local progressives turn their ire outwards and step back from the intra-party feuding, especially given the increasingly authoritarian overreach by the Trump administration. We can also hope that the business leaders who have weighed in on the race understand that the Missouri GOP’s culture war fights will be a drag on their ability to recruit and retain talent. They should know that attracting workers doesn’t all come down to crime rates, real or perceived. Whether a community is seen as welcoming and accepting is also an important part of the workforce recruitment equation. If they are truly concerned with the region’s ability to grow economically, these business leaders should be spending just as heavily to convince the GOP that their disregard for the voters’ wishes and narrow focus on culture war issues is hurting the entire state’s ability to compete. If they don’t, we should expect more people crossing the river to the relative safety and tolerance of Illinois.
