Spencer Dominates Low Turnout Primary
Tuesday’s primary saw Alderman Cara Spencer take home a massive haul of the support and votes. The unofficial final tally shows she got support from over two thirds of the electorate, more than doubling Mayor Jones’ level of support. Recorder of Deeds Michael Butler pulled in votes from just under a quarter of voters, while utility executive Andrew Jones came in at 14%. While polling had shown Ald. Spencer getting support from around 50% of likely voters, Tuesday’s results show she was also supported by a significant number of voters who selected someone else as their top choice. In the end Ald. Spencer received approval from 68% of city voters, while Mayor Jones claimed support from 33%. Recorder of Deeds Michael Butler received approval from 25% of primary voters, while Andrew Jones claimed support from 14%. Only the top two candidates proceed to the general election. Given Ald. Spencer’s wide lead, it is overwhelmingly likely that she will be the city’s next mayor.
Over in the race for city Comptroller, former alderman and state representative Donna Baringer squeaked out a victory in the primary. Celeste Metcalf came in third with support from a quarter of voters. The top two candidates were separated by less than 2%, which means that Metcalf’s supporters go into the general election with the votes to decide the final victor. While the second round of the mayoral race looks to be a snoozer, the usually sleepy race for Comptroller will be the one to watch.
In the southside’s third ward, Ald. Cohn brought home the support of 56% of ward voters, while challenger Dallas Adams posted a very respectable 42%. Activist, nurse, and community organizer Inez Bordeaux came in third, posting support from 27% of the ward’s voters. While not as close as the Comptroller race, this one could be competitive in the general election. If Adams can consolidate support, the ward set up as an “opportunity ward” could indeed bring the first Black alder to the city’s deep south side. That said, it is an uphill battle.
On the city’s northside, the 11th Ward’s Ald. Laura Keys appears poised to return for another term. She pulled in support from 63% of ward voters, close to twice as much support as her closest challenger, Rebecca McCloud. Former Alderman Melinda Long came in a very distant third.
The asterisk to all of the above is that a big general election turnout could definitely change final outcomes. Yesterday’s primary saw a turnout of just under 18%, while 2021’s primary drew 22%. That’s a pretty big drop and shows that voters have been less motivated by this spring’s contest. While it is unclear what would change that trajectory for the general election, it is possible that something comes to the fore that energizes voters and sends them to the polls in numbers comparable to 2021’s April turnout, which drew 29% of voters to the polls. If that happened, it would mean that over a third of the new general election voters won’t have cast a ballot in the primary. While it is hard to see that being enough to change Mayor Jones’ fortunes, it is theoretically possible. I would say that it is still highly unlikely. The same for the race in ward 11. In this situation, the aldermanic race on the southside would likely be wide open. The race for Comptroller will likely be close, no matter the turnout scenario.
Disclosure: Author worked for Ald. Spencer on a prior campaign.
