The Shrinking Adult Population of Saint Louis: A Demographic Shift with Consequences
By Dr. Onésimo “Ness” Sandoval
In 2023, Saint Louis had 230,938 residents aged 18 and over—a significant decline from 251,755 in 2010. This contraction in the adult population is more than a statistical trend; it reflects deeper demographic shifts reshaping the city’s social and economic landscape.
Race has played a central role in this transformation. The white adult population declined modestly from 117,905 in 2010 to 113,502 in 2023, a loss of 4,403 individuals. However, the decline among Black adults has been far more severe. In 2010, Saint Louis had 114,339 Black residents aged 18 and over. By 2023, that number had fallen to 87,251—a staggering loss of 27,088 Black adults.
The most alarming trend has emerged in just the last few years. Since 2019, Saint Louis has lost 21,490 Black residents overall, with the adult Black population alone declining by 15,601—from an estimated 102,852 in 2019 to 87,251 in 2023. This represents one of the most significant percentage declines of Black adults in any major U.S. city during this period.
These shifts have long-term implications. Today, approximately 49% of households in Saint Louis are white. If current trends continue, the number of births to white mothers is projected to surpass those to Black mothers in the near future. The white non-Hispanic population remains the largest racial group in the city, and without targeted efforts to retain Black families, Saint Louis is on track to once again become a white-majority city.
It’s a complex demographic story—one intertwined with economic opportunity, housing patterns, and political representation. With an evolving electorate, the impact of these changes will be evident in upcoming elections. The question remains: Will city leaders and policymakers take meaningful action to address the forces driving this shift, or will these trends continue unchecked? April’s elections may offer the first glimpse of just how much Saint Louis has changed.
J.S. Onesimo Sandoval, Ph.D. is a professor of sociology and demography at Saint Louis University.
